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51.
A limnogeological reconnaissance study was carried out on Lake Iznik, located in the southeast of the Marmara region of Turkey, involving a seismic survey and collection of short sediment cores. This lake is located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), a transform plate boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian Plates. It is, therefore, tectonically active and offers an opportunity to investigate the interplay of sedimentary and seismo-tectonic processes, as well as climate change and human impact in the region. Short cores of the three sub-basins, maximum length of 35.5 cm, recovered non-laminated, blackish clays and silts with varying amounts of biogenic and minerogenic (allochthonous, autochthonous) material, which documented almost the last 80 years of deposition and environmental history. High sedimentation rates in the deeper core sections are accompanied by changes in land use (conversion of woodland to farmland) in the northern areas of Lake Iznik, which caused the deposition of more weathered material (high K/Na ratios) and higher contents of Mn in the lake. A tendency towards eutrophic conditions within the last 20 years is indicated by high nutrient content (N, TOC, P), decreasing C/N-ratios, and characteristic diatom and cladoceran associations. Also increased pollution is revealed by higher Pb, Cu, and Zn contents and increased supply of human and animal faeces (high coprostanol content) during the last two decades. But simultaneous lower sedimentation rates towards the core tops complicate the reconstruction of recent and past eutrophication and pollution states of Lake Iznik. This requires an extension of the pilot study and deeper sediment cores, to recover non-anthropogenic influenced sediment levels.  相似文献   
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Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.  相似文献   
54.
A filter composed of a crossed pair of doubly refracting crystals and a polaroid, mounted at the focal plane of the telescope, divides each star image into two images of constant intensity ratio. It is shown that such a filter arrangement is capable of providing reliable photographic calibration for stellar photometry.  相似文献   
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The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.  相似文献   
57.
Proximity is a fundamental concept in any comprehensive ontology of space ( Worboys 2001 ). The provision of a context‐contingent translation mechanism between linguistic proximity measures (e.g. “near”, “far”) and metric distance measures is an important topic in current GIS research. After a discussion of context factors that mediate the relationship between linguistic and metric distance measures, we present a statistical approach, Ordered Logit Regression, to the context‐contingent proximity modeling. The approach can predict proximity given the corresponding metric distance and context variables. An empirical case study with human subjects is carried out using this statistical approach. Interpretation and predictive accuracy of the empirical case study are discussed.  相似文献   
58.
Metamorphic rocks at Milos are known in small outcrops beneath the volcanic formations, as xenoliths in the Traphores volcanic breccia and as pebbles in the Paleochora Quaternary deposits. These rocks seem to belong to three different metamorphic units which probably have intricate relationships in the basement: — the eclogites unit shows garnetjadeite or garnet-omphacite primary associations, with apparently late crystallization of lawsonite phenoblasts an recrystallization features at relatively low temperatures; — the glaucophane schist unit exhibits Jadeite+quartz or glaucophane+lawsonite primary mineralogy; — the greenschist facies unit shows low-pressure main assemblages, most generally developed after high-pressure events. The two former units involve tholeiitic meta-igneous rocks, having been spilitized before metamorphism; they generally suffered more or less advanced recrystallization features in the low-pressure field of the greenschist facies. The third unit shows only meta-sedimentary rocks, with the sole exception of one single meta-doleritic pebble having calk-alkaline affinities.Petrological and mineralogical studies, based upon 15 bulk-rock compositions and 178 probe-analysed data points, lead to suspect at least 2, perhaps 3, different metamorphic events rather than one single metamorphic evolution, to account for the 3 U distinguished. From the observation of the mineralogical assemblages and their evolution, the former events (stages 1 and 2) could be related to rapid subduction of ocean-floor or back-arc basalts, whereas, during the latter event (stage 3), the rocks experienced crystallization conditions involving both decreasing pressures and increasing temperatures.  相似文献   
59.
Zusammenfassung Der Verwitterungsmantel (Laterit s. l.) der südlichen Goldküste besteht aus Horizonten, die sowohl verschiedene Entstehungsart als verschiedenes Alter haben. Brekzien oder Steinschichten sind unter aridem Klima als Wüstenpflaster entstanden. Zonen chemisch verwitterten Felses, Horizonte von lehmigem Sand (an deren Aufbau Termiten wesentlich beteiligt sind) und Konkretionen haben sich unter feuchtem Klima gebildet. Harte limonitische Oberflächen-Krusten deuten auf progressive Austrocknung hin. Unter diesen drei klimatischen Bedingungen gebildete Horizonte wiederholen sich mehrfach im Verwitterungsmantel der Goldküste. Ein junger, unvollständiger Zyklus ist weit verbreitet, ein älterer Zyklus tritt nur in begrenzten Vorkommen auf, und ein dritter Zyklus ist fast nur noch in aufgearbeiteten, limonitisierten Bruchstücken erhalten. Die wiederholten Klimaschwankungen machen es wahrscheinlich, daß der Verwitterungsmantel zeitlich dem größeren Teil des Quartärs entspricht. Wahrscheinlich können die Ergebnisse auf weit größere Gebiete angewandt werden.  相似文献   
60.
Mantle xenoliths from Puy Beaunit (French Massif Central) are compositionally varied, ranging from relatively fertile spinel lherzolites to refractory spinel dunites. Fertile peridotites have registered a modal (amphibole-bearing lherzolites) and cryptic metasomatic event that took place before the last Permian (257 Ma) melting episode. Depletion processes have been constrained by chemical modelling: the depletion is related to different degrees of partial melting, but two major melt extraction episodes are needed to explain the range of major element composition. The second event was responsible for the local large-scale dunitification of former residues. The first melting event (F25%) and metasomatic enrichment are attributed to an ancient fluid and/or liquid infiltration that could be related to a pre-Variscan regional subduction (located to the north of the Beaunit area). Texture acquisition and major deformation of the mantle xenoliths were sub-contemporaneous of the subduction and would result from lithospheric delamination. The second melting event (F17%) produced high-Mg basalts with calc-alkaline trace element signature that gave rise to the Permian underplating episode recognised in western Europe.  相似文献   
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